Progress despite uncertainty---where to from here?
The constant theme of my most recent blogs has been to keep the faith when it comes to global economic recovery and equity markets, but to be very wary of extremely overvalued bond markets. As I look to the second half of the year I find myself having a ‘groundhog day’ moment as essentially my message remains unchanged. Interestingly, while equity markets and economies have generally behaved as I might have expected during the first half of the year, the factor that has dominated returns for clients was currency movements. I expect less currency volatility from here out with the large moves mainly behind us. I am not in the strong dollar consensus camp and believe currencies may well just range trade near term.
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